COVID-19

Monterey County California SARS-CoV-2 update 9/06-9/19/20

In the last 14 days (September 6 – September 19, 2020), 9,289 RT-PCR assays for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) were performed and 996 were positive for an average of 10.60% positive tests per day. We have had 9 deaths in 14 days, an average of 0.643 deaths per day. We have now had a total of 9,467 infections in our county; 10.52% of these infections have occurred in the last 14 days of the pandemic. At our current rate of new infections, 71 per day for the last 14 days, we will reach 10,000 total infections in 8 days. 41 new patients were hospitalized in the last 14 days bringing the total to 549; 7.46% of the total hospitalizations have occurred in the last 14 days. Our hospitalization rate is averaging 2.93 patients per day for the last 14 days. To date, 67 of the 549 patients have died (12.20%). We are not controlling the infection in Monterey County. If our rate of hospitalizations and death rate remain constant, we will reach a total of 100 COVID-19 deaths in our county between 11/3/20 and 11/09/20. If we can get the number of infections down below 1% to 3% per day, we might have a chance to control the pandemic and the deaths per day in our county. 

COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 Projections 9/14/20

It’s time for our next 14-day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) for the United States. We use the Worldometers aggregators data set to make our projections of future total infections and deaths, since it includes data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, the U.S. Military, federal prisons, and the Navajo Nation.

14-Day Moving Averages of SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Deaths

9/12/208/28/208/14/207/31/207/17/20
Average Deaths per day823*9631,0501,070714
Average Infections per day39,951**43,88454,59766,74861,512
*140 fewer deaths/day than 8/28/20 **3,933 fewer infections/day than 8/28/20

The SARS-CoV-2 infections and subsequent deaths have decreased in each of three previous 14-day periods. In the last 14 days, the number of infections has decreased by 3,933 infections per day, and average deaths per day have decreased by 140 deaths per day.

As of 9/11/20 we have had 197,177 deaths and 6,636,247 SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States.

Our new projections for the United States are that by October 4, 2020 we will have had 211,283 total deaths and 7,507,249 infections.

Our new projections for the United States are that by November 4, 2020 we will have had 241,734 total deaths and 8,972,116 total infections.

COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Projections

It’s time for our next 14-day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) for the United States. We use the Worldometers aggregators data set to make our projections of future total infections and deaths since it includes data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, the U.S. Military, federal prisons and the Navajo Nation.

14-Day Moving Averages of SARS-CoV-2 Deaths and Infections

8/28/208/14/207/31/207/17/20
Average deaths per day963*1,0501,070714
Average infections per day43,884**54,59766,74861,512
*87 fewer deaths per day than 8/14/20 **10,713 fewer infections per day than 8/14/20

The SARS-CoV-2 infections and subsequent deaths were decreasing in each of two previous 14-day periods. In the last 14 days, the number of infections has decreased by 10,713 infections per day and average deaths per day has decreased by 87 deaths per day.

As of 8/28/20 we have had 185,901 deaths and 6,096,235 SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States. Our new projections for the United States are that by October 4, 2020, we will have had 222,383 total deaths and 7,719,943 infections. We also project that by November 4, 2020, we will have had 252,949 total deaths and 9,101,347 total infections.

COVID-19

14-Day Moving Average Projections for COVID-19

It’s time for our next 14-day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 for the United States. We use the Worldometers aggregators data set to make our projections of future total infections and deaths since it includes data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, the U.S Military, Federal Prisons and the Navajo Nation.

                           14-Day Moving Averages of SARS-CoV-2  Infections and Deaths

8/14/207/31/207/17/20
Average Deaths Per Day1,0501,07072420 fewer deaths per day compared with 7/31/20
Average Infections Per Day54,59766,74861,51212,157 fewer infections per day compared with 7/31/20

The SARS-CoV-2 infections and subsequent deaths were increasing in each of two previous 14-day periods. In the last 14 days, the number of infections has decreased by 12,157 infections per day and average deaths per day has decreased by 20 deaths per day.

As of 8/14/20 we have had 171,535 deaths and 5,476,266 SARS CoV-2 infections in the United States.

Our new projections for the United States are that by October 4, 2020, we will have had 225,085 total deaths (a decrease in projected deaths from 226,297 total deaths) and 8,260,713 infections (a decrease in projected infections from 9,044,509 total infections).

Our new projections for the United States are that by November 4, 2020, we will have had 257,635 total deaths and 9,953,220 total infections.

COVID-19

COVID-19 Update (8/1/20)

It’s time for our next 14 day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 for the United States. (Data via Worldometers.)

14 day moving averages of SARS-CoV-2  Average increase per day (last 14 days)

7/31/207/17/20   Change in deaths/infections per day
Average Deaths per day  1,070714356 extra deaths per day
Average Infections per day66,74861,5125,236 extra infections per day

The SARS-CoV-2 infections and subsequent deaths are still increasing in each of the last two 14 day periods in the United States with no signs of improvement.

As of 7/31/20, we have had 156,747 deaths and 4,705,889 SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States.

Sadly our projections for the United States are that by October 4, 2020 we will have had 226,297 total deaths and 9,044,509 total infections.

Sadly our projections for the United States are that by November 4, 2020 we will have had 259,467 total deaths and 11,113,697 total infections.

COVID-19

COVID-19 Update (7/18/20)

We last updated our COVID-19 projections on data through 7/4/20. We predicted that by October 1, 2020 we would have a total of 6,689,398 infections and a total of 183,725 deaths (+/- 1,328 deaths).  By November 4, 2020, we had predicted there would be a total of 8,124,504 infections and 203,241 total deaths (+/- 1829 deaths). Due to rapidly changing numbers of infections and an unstable crude death rate, our reassessment of infection and death predictions will occur every 2 weeks.

We use Worldometers data sets to make our projections. We have had 861,717 infections and 9,998 deaths in the last 14 days. We are averaging 61,512 infections and 714 deaths per day the last 14 days. We’ve had, in the United States, 3,770,012 infections and 142,064 deaths. Our calculated COVID-19 death percentage in the United States is 6.615% as of 7/18/20.

These are our July 18, 2020 updated COVID-19 projections for the United States. We predict that by October 4, 2020 in the United States we’ll have a total of 8,567,948 infections, and a total of 197,756 deaths (+/- 2512 deaths) will have occurred.  Due to rapidly changing numbers of infections and an unstable crude death rate, our reassessment of total infection and death predictions for November 4, 2020 is not possible at this time. We will re-evaluate our predictions in two weeks.

COVID-19

Updated Modeling for COVID-19

On October 1, we predict there will be 3,887,718 COVID-19 infected patients in the United States. Our estimate, based on 3,887,718 infections on October 1 (inclusive) would be that we will have 170,492 deaths. Depending on whether the death rate changes, we could have upwards of 205,266 deaths, but we feel confident, based on our modeling, that the number of deaths will be closer to 170,492. We will be reassessing these numbers every 7 days.

For daily COVID-19 updates, follow Dr. Wright on Twitter!