Month: November 2020

COVID-19, Uncategorized

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Update

davidcwrightmd

It’s time for our next 14-day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 for the United States. We use the Worldometers aggregators data set to make our projections of future total infections and deaths since it includes data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, the U.S. Military, Federal Prisons and the Navajo Nation.

14-day moving averages of SARS-CoV-2 Deaths and Infections in the USA

11/21/2011/07/2010/24/2010/10/209/26/209/12/208/28/208/14/20
Average deaths per day1,286*8917547287878239631,050
Average infections per day154,945**90,07559,15545,24640,65739,95143,88454,597
*395 more deaths per day than 11/07/20 **64,870 more infections per day than 11/07/20

In the United States, SARS-CoV-2 deaths have increased for the third time in a 14-day period after decreasing in each of five previous 14-day periods. There were 395 more deaths per day in the last 14 days. In the last 14 days, the number of infections has increased by 64,870 infections per day. Deaths per day will continue to increase at least over the next 8 to 10 weeks. On 11/20/20, 204,179 new infections occurred in the United States, another new daily record for infections. There were also 1,999 deaths and 22,789 serious or critically ill patients in our hospitals on 11/20/20.

As of 11/20/20 we have had 260,331 deaths and 12,277,827 SARS CoV-2 infections in the United States. This represents 21.2% of the infections and 18.9% of the deaths in the world from SARS-CoV-2. We have had 2,169,236 new infections in the last 14 days. We are adding one million infections every 7 days. Each million infections usually results in at least 20,000 deaths. On 11/20/20, thirty five states had greater than 100,000 total infections and 29 states had greater than 2,000 total deaths. Only 58 other countries have greater than 100,000 infections and only 51 countries have more than 2,000 deaths.

We have a new President-elect and Vice President-elect that are making the pandemic a first priority after Inauguration on January 20, 2021. Testing, contact tracing, wearing masks, social distancing, and washing our hands frequently should no longer be political issues. These are non-pharmaceutical interventions used by most successful countries and some states to protect their citizens and their economies. New Zealand, Taiwan, and Australia are three countries that have done this successfully. In the United States, Maine, Vermont, and Hawaii are doing a better job handling the pandemic than many of our states. The pandemic problem is overwhelming our health care delivery system in many states. Unless things change before Inauguration Day on January 20, 2020 (61 days away) we could by our predictions have an additional 9,451,645 SARS-CoV-2 infections and another 78,446 deaths. If our infections per day and deaths per day continue to increase these numbers will, once again, be underestimations of the problem.

COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Update

davidcwrightmd

It’s time for our next 14-day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 for the United States. We use the Worldometers aggregators data set to make our projections of future total infections and deaths since it includes data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, the U.S. Military, federal prisons and the Navajo Nation.

11/07/2010/24/2010/10/209/26/209/12/208/28/208/14/207/31/20
Average Deaths per day*8917547287878239631,0501,070
Average Infections per day**90,07559,15545,24640,65739,95143,88454,59766,748
*137 more deaths per day than 10/24/20 14-day period
**30,920 more infections per day than 10/24/20 14-day period

In the United States, SARS-CoV-2 deaths have increased for the second time in a 14-day period after decreasing in each of five previous 14-day periods. There were 137 more deaths per day in the last 14 days. In the last 14 days, the number of infections per day has increased by 30,920. Deaths per day will continue to increase at least over the next 8 to 12 weeks. On 11/06/20, 132,540 new infections occurred in the United States, another new daily record for infections. There were also 1,248 deaths and 18,303 serious or critically ill patients in our hospitals on 11/06/20.

As of 11/06/20, we have had 242,230 deaths and 10,058,586 SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States. This represents 20.2% of the infections and 19.4% of the deaths in the world from SARS-CoV-2. On 10/24/20, 29 states in the United States had greater than 100,000 infections and 26 states had greater than 2,000 deaths. On 11/06/20, 32 states have greater than 100,000 infections and 28 states have greater than 2,000 deaths. Only 57 other countries have greater than 100,000 infections, and only 45 countries have more than 2,000 deaths.

As of 10/24/20, in the United States, 2.642% of the population has had a documented SARS-CoV-2 infection. California was ranked 33rd in infection percentage at 2.270%. In North Dakota, 4.716% of the population was infected (ranked #1) and in South Dakota 4.205% of the population was infected (ranked #2). As of 11/06/20, in the United States, 3.038% of the population has had a documented SARS-CoV-2 infection. California was ranked 36th in infection percentage at 2.44%. In North Dakota 6.77% of the population was infected (ranked #1) and in South Dakota 5.95% of the population was infected (ranked #2). On 11/06/20, Texas became the first state to record over a million total infections. They had 9,239 infections and 124 deaths on 11/06/20, bringing their total infections to 1,007,155 and total deaths to 19,154. 3.47% of Texas residents have had an infection. Probably greater than 90% of the people in the USA have not had their first SARS-CoV-2 infection.

We have a new President-elect and Vice President-elect today. Testing, contact tracing, wearing masks, social distancing and washing our hands frequently should no longer be political issues. These are non-pharmaceutical interventions used by most successful countries and some states to protect their citizens and their economies. New Zealand, Taiwan, and Australia are three countries that have done this successfully. In the United States, Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Hawaii and Oregon are doing a better job handling the pandemic than many of our states. The pandemic problem is about to overwhelm our health care delivery system in many states. Unless things change before Inauguration Day on January 20, 2021 (75 days away) we could, by our predictions, have 6,755,625 new SARS-CoV-2 infections and another 66,825 deaths. If our infections per day and deaths per day continue to increase, these numbers will be underestimations of the problem.