COVID-19, Uncategorized

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Update

It’s time for our next 14-day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 for the United States. We use the Worldometers aggregators data set to make our projections of future total infections and deaths since it includes data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, the U.S. Military, Federal Prisons and the Navajo Nation.

14-day moving averages of SARS-CoV-2 Deaths and Infections in the USA

Average deaths per day1,286*8917547287878239631,050
Average infections per day154,945**90,07559,15545,24640,65739,95143,88454,597
*395 more deaths per day than 11/07/20 **64,870 more infections per day than 11/07/20

In the United States, SARS-CoV-2 deaths have increased for the third time in a 14-day period after decreasing in each of five previous 14-day periods. There were 395 more deaths per day in the last 14 days. In the last 14 days, the number of infections has increased by 64,870 infections per day. Deaths per day will continue to increase at least over the next 8 to 10 weeks. On 11/20/20, 204,179 new infections occurred in the United States, another new daily record for infections. There were also 1,999 deaths and 22,789 serious or critically ill patients in our hospitals on 11/20/20.

As of 11/20/20 we have had 260,331 deaths and 12,277,827 SARS CoV-2 infections in the United States. This represents 21.2% of the infections and 18.9% of the deaths in the world from SARS-CoV-2. We have had 2,169,236 new infections in the last 14 days. We are adding one million infections every 7 days. Each million infections usually results in at least 20,000 deaths. On 11/20/20, thirty five states had greater than 100,000 total infections and 29 states had greater than 2,000 total deaths. Only 58 other countries have greater than 100,000 infections and only 51 countries have more than 2,000 deaths.

We have a new President-elect and Vice President-elect that are making the pandemic a first priority after Inauguration on January 20, 2021. Testing, contact tracing, wearing masks, social distancing, and washing our hands frequently should no longer be political issues. These are non-pharmaceutical interventions used by most successful countries and some states to protect their citizens and their economies. New Zealand, Taiwan, and Australia are three countries that have done this successfully. In the United States, Maine, Vermont, and Hawaii are doing a better job handling the pandemic than many of our states. The pandemic problem is overwhelming our health care delivery system in many states. Unless things change before Inauguration Day on January 20, 2020 (61 days away) we could by our predictions have an additional 9,451,645 SARS-CoV-2 infections and another 78,446 deaths. If our infections per day and deaths per day continue to increase these numbers will, once again, be underestimations of the problem.