COVID-19

Monterey County California SARS-CoV-2 update 9/06-9/19/20

In the last 14 days (September 6 – September 19, 2020), 9,289 RT-PCR assays for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) were performed and 996 were positive for an average of 10.60% positive tests per day. We have had 9 deaths in 14 days, an average of 0.643 deaths per day. We have now had a total of 9,467 infections in our county; 10.52% of these infections have occurred in the last 14 days of the pandemic. At our current rate of new infections, 71 per day for the last 14 days, we will reach 10,000 total infections in 8 days. 41 new patients were hospitalized in the last 14 days bringing the total to 549; 7.46% of the total hospitalizations have occurred in the last 14 days. Our hospitalization rate is averaging 2.93 patients per day for the last 14 days. To date, 67 of the 549 patients have died (12.20%). We are not controlling the infection in Monterey County. If our rate of hospitalizations and death rate remain constant, we will reach a total of 100 COVID-19 deaths in our county between 11/3/20 and 11/09/20. If we can get the number of infections down below 1% to 3% per day, we might have a chance to control the pandemic and the deaths per day in our county. 

COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 Projections 9/14/20

It’s time for our next 14-day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) for the United States. We use the Worldometers aggregators data set to make our projections of future total infections and deaths, since it includes data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, the U.S. Military, federal prisons, and the Navajo Nation.

14-Day Moving Averages of SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Deaths

9/12/208/28/208/14/207/31/207/17/20
Average Deaths per day823*9631,0501,070714
Average Infections per day39,951**43,88454,59766,74861,512
*140 fewer deaths/day than 8/28/20 **3,933 fewer infections/day than 8/28/20

The SARS-CoV-2 infections and subsequent deaths have decreased in each of three previous 14-day periods. In the last 14 days, the number of infections has decreased by 3,933 infections per day, and average deaths per day have decreased by 140 deaths per day.

As of 9/11/20 we have had 197,177 deaths and 6,636,247 SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States.

Our new projections for the United States are that by October 4, 2020 we will have had 211,283 total deaths and 7,507,249 infections.

Our new projections for the United States are that by November 4, 2020 we will have had 241,734 total deaths and 8,972,116 total infections.

COVID-19

Monterey County California SARS-CoV-2 Update

In the last 14 days (August 23-September 5, 2020), 10,812 RT-PCR assays for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) were performed and 1,146 were positive for an average of 10.60% positive tests per day. We have had 6 deaths in 14 days or an average of 0.428 deaths per day. We have now had a total of 8,439 infections in our county; 14.3% of these infections have occurred in the last 14 days of the pandemic.  77 new patients were hospitalized in the last 14 days, bringing the total to 507; 15.18% of the total hospitalized patients have occurred in the last 14 days. To date 58 of the 507 patients have died (11.43%). We are not controlling the infection in Monterey County and our hospitalization rate is averaging 5.5 patients per day the last 14 days.  If we can get the number of infections down below 1 to 3% per day we might have a chance to control the pandemic in our county. 

COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Projections

It’s time for our next 14-day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) for the United States. We use the Worldometers aggregators data set to make our projections of future total infections and deaths since it includes data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, the U.S. Military, federal prisons and the Navajo Nation.

14-Day Moving Averages of SARS-CoV-2 Deaths and Infections

8/28/208/14/207/31/207/17/20
Average deaths per day963*1,0501,070714
Average infections per day43,884**54,59766,74861,512
*87 fewer deaths per day than 8/14/20 **10,713 fewer infections per day than 8/14/20

The SARS-CoV-2 infections and subsequent deaths were decreasing in each of two previous 14-day periods. In the last 14 days, the number of infections has decreased by 10,713 infections per day and average deaths per day has decreased by 87 deaths per day.

As of 8/28/20 we have had 185,901 deaths and 6,096,235 SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States. Our new projections for the United States are that by October 4, 2020, we will have had 222,383 total deaths and 7,719,943 infections. We also project that by November 4, 2020, we will have had 252,949 total deaths and 9,101,347 total infections.

COVID-19

14-Day Moving Average Projections for COVID-19

It’s time for our next 14-day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 for the United States. We use the Worldometers aggregators data set to make our projections of future total infections and deaths since it includes data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, the U.S Military, Federal Prisons and the Navajo Nation.

                           14-Day Moving Averages of SARS-CoV-2  Infections and Deaths

8/14/207/31/207/17/20
Average Deaths Per Day1,0501,07072420 fewer deaths per day compared with 7/31/20
Average Infections Per Day54,59766,74861,51212,157 fewer infections per day compared with 7/31/20

The SARS-CoV-2 infections and subsequent deaths were increasing in each of two previous 14-day periods. In the last 14 days, the number of infections has decreased by 12,157 infections per day and average deaths per day has decreased by 20 deaths per day.

As of 8/14/20 we have had 171,535 deaths and 5,476,266 SARS CoV-2 infections in the United States.

Our new projections for the United States are that by October 4, 2020, we will have had 225,085 total deaths (a decrease in projected deaths from 226,297 total deaths) and 8,260,713 infections (a decrease in projected infections from 9,044,509 total infections).

Our new projections for the United States are that by November 4, 2020, we will have had 257,635 total deaths and 9,953,220 total infections.

COVID-19

COVID-19 Update (8/1/20)

It’s time for our next 14 day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 for the United States. (Data via Worldometers.)

14 day moving averages of SARS-CoV-2  Average increase per day (last 14 days)

7/31/207/17/20   Change in deaths/infections per day
Average Deaths per day  1,070714356 extra deaths per day
Average Infections per day66,74861,5125,236 extra infections per day

The SARS-CoV-2 infections and subsequent deaths are still increasing in each of the last two 14 day periods in the United States with no signs of improvement.

As of 7/31/20, we have had 156,747 deaths and 4,705,889 SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States.

Sadly our projections for the United States are that by October 4, 2020 we will have had 226,297 total deaths and 9,044,509 total infections.

Sadly our projections for the United States are that by November 4, 2020 we will have had 259,467 total deaths and 11,113,697 total infections.

COVID-19

COVID-19 Update (7/18/20)

We last updated our COVID-19 projections on data through 7/4/20. We predicted that by October 1, 2020 we would have a total of 6,689,398 infections and a total of 183,725 deaths (+/- 1,328 deaths).  By November 4, 2020, we had predicted there would be a total of 8,124,504 infections and 203,241 total deaths (+/- 1829 deaths). Due to rapidly changing numbers of infections and an unstable crude death rate, our reassessment of infection and death predictions will occur every 2 weeks.

We use Worldometers data sets to make our projections. We have had 861,717 infections and 9,998 deaths in the last 14 days. We are averaging 61,512 infections and 714 deaths per day the last 14 days. We’ve had, in the United States, 3,770,012 infections and 142,064 deaths. Our calculated COVID-19 death percentage in the United States is 6.615% as of 7/18/20.

These are our July 18, 2020 updated COVID-19 projections for the United States. We predict that by October 4, 2020 in the United States we’ll have a total of 8,567,948 infections, and a total of 197,756 deaths (+/- 2512 deaths) will have occurred.  Due to rapidly changing numbers of infections and an unstable crude death rate, our reassessment of total infection and death predictions for November 4, 2020 is not possible at this time. We will re-evaluate our predictions in two weeks.

COVID-19

Updated Modeling for COVID-19

We have updated our predictions for COVID-19 infections and deaths by October 1, 2020 and a new prediction for November 4, 2020. We had predicted in June that there would be 3,887,718 COVID-19 infected patients in the United States. Our estimate, based on 3,887,718 infections on October 1 (inclusive) was that we would have 170,492 deaths. Based on a decreased crude death rate and uncontrolled increases in the number of infections the last two weeks, our new prediction for October 1, 2020 is that we will have a total of 6,689,398 infections and a total of 183,725 deaths (+ or – 1,328 deaths). By November 4, 2020 we predict there will have been a total of 8,124,504 infections and 203,241 total deaths (+ or – 1829 deaths). With rapidly changing infections and an unstable crude death rate, our reassessment of infection and death predictions will occur again in 2 weeks.

COVID-19

Updated Modeling for COVID-19

On October 1, we predict there will be 3,887,718 COVID-19 infected patients in the United States. Our estimate, based on 3,887,718 infections on October 1 (inclusive) would be that we will have 170,492 deaths. Depending on whether the death rate changes, we could have upwards of 205,266 deaths, but we feel confident, based on our modeling, that the number of deaths will be closer to 170,492. We will be reassessing these numbers every 7 days.

For daily COVID-19 updates, follow Dr. Wright on Twitter!

COVID-19

COVID-19 Update (6/11/20)

By our way of counting, this is Day 161 of the COVID-19 pandemic. To date, we have neither a vaccine nor a widely available drug to effectively treat or prevent this infection. Our first USA case was identified in Washington State on Day 21 of the pandemic. In those next 140 days (20 weeks) the United States, as of 6/08/20, had 2,007,499 known COVID-19 PCR positive infected patients and 112,469 deaths, giving us a death rate of 5.6%. We had 18,905 new cases and 16,923 people in serious or critical condition on that day. That was the twentieth consecutive day that we’ve had over 16,900 people in serious or critical condition in the United States. We have 1,315,537 more COVID-19 positive infected patients than any other country in the world. The five countries other than the United States with the most cases (Brazil, Russia, Spain, the United Kingdom, and India) have a total of 1,991,945 cases combined, which is 15,544 fewer cases than in the United States. 

Four rapidly expanding “hot spot” countries on 6/07/20 are India with 257,486 infections and 10,864 new infections, Peru with 186,515 infections and 4,757 new infections, Russia with 467,673 infections and 8,849 new infections and Brazil with 691,962 infections and 18,375 new infections. 

Our Updated COVID-19 Projections

The University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics (IHME) said on 4/28/20 that we would have a total of 74,000 deaths in the USA by August 5, 2020. In contrast to this, we analyzed the case and death data using our two methods again on 5/22/20.  We estimated that we would reach 2,000,000 infected patients by June 7th (in 15.4 days, 369 hours or 2.2 weeks) and have between 17,710 and 20,513 new deaths for a total number of deaths between 115,357 and 118,156. The actual numbers by the morning of June 8th were 2,007,499 and 112,469 deaths (Worldometers). We use the Worldometers numbers rather than the Johns Hopkins numbers because Worldometers includes Veteran deaths in VA facilities, deaths in the US Military, deaths in Federal Prisons, and deaths in the Navajo Nation. 

Our estimates of the number of COVID-19 deaths on June 7th were higher than the actual deaths by 2,888 deaths or 2.57%. We think this overestimation of the number of deaths might be because of hyperimmune plasma use, Remdesivir use, use of both or possibly better critical care at US hospitals. Other possibilities might be decreasing virulence of COVID-19 or flaws in our predicted models of deaths. Our modeling of the number of infected patients was off by 0.37% or 7,499 additional infections.

All of our past predictions from 4/28/20, 5/03/20, 5/08/20 and 5/22/20 for time to reach 2,000,000 infections and the estimate of the number of deaths are listed in the following chart:

A month ago, the University of Washington re-projected the number of deaths by August 4, 2020 to be 134,475. When we checked their website on 5/23/20, they had revised this number to 143,357.

We don’t usually project out 2 months for total infections and deaths, but if we did, using our methodologies, in our new projections over the next 58 days we would predict that by August 4, 2020 inclusive in the United States we will have 3,264,069 COVID-19 infected patients and a total of between 165,307 and 182,836 deaths. If the death rate (now 5.60%) decreases further, these estimates of the number of deaths will be too high.

State of California

As of 6/07/20, the State of California has 131,319 total infections, 2,279 new infections, 4,653 total deaths. On 6/07/20, California reported 4,506 hospitalized COVID-19 patients (on that day) and 1,301 patients in the ICU. If California were a country, it would rank 18th in total number of cases in the world (above China) and 14th in total deaths (above Mexico). It would rank 4th in the world in ICU patients (between Brazil and Iran). 

Monterey County

As of 6/07/20, Monterey County has 763 total  COVID-19 infections, 12 new infections and 11 total deaths (3 new deaths since our last report on 5/24/20). An unknown number of deaths (< 11 according to CPHD) have been reported at a skilled nursing home in Salinas (Windsor The Ridge Rehabilitation Center).  COVID-19 infections in Healthcare workers at two other skilled nursing facilities in the cities of Monterey and Soledad have been reported to CPHD. Two infected State prison employees have been reported in a state prison in Soledad.

We have expanding numbers of infections in eight zip codes 93901 (Salinas, 54 total infections), 93905 (Salinas, 233 total infections), 93906 (Salinas, 144 total infections), 93907 (North County, 31 total infections), 93926 (Gonzales, 28 total infections), 93927 (Greenfield, 67 total infections), 93960 (Soledad, 49 total infections) and 93930 (King City, 63 total infections). We continue to have new infections and deaths in our county that are not occurring in our neighboring agricultural counties Santa Cruz and San Benito Counties. We have five times the number of deaths that Santa Cruz and San Benito County have. We are not yet seeing infections in Pacific Grove, Carmel, Pebble Beach, Carmel Highlands or Carmel Valley.  The differences in total infections  in parts of our county compared to these other counties, valleys and cities have not been explained by public health officials.

Recommended Reading

Coronavirus in prisons: See which area of the San Joaquin Valley is the most impacted https://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/article243315226.html 

Protest held at Avenal State Prison after COVID-19 outbreak inside facility https://abc30.com/protest-avenal-state-prison-covid-19/6235421/ 

Chicago coronavirus: Autopsy shows Chicago infant died of COVID-19 in March, ME says https://abc7chicago.com/illinois-coronavirus-cases-chicago-update/6241173/