COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Update

It’s time for our next 14-day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 for the United States and my thoughts on vaccines and mutant viruses. We use the Worldometer aggregators data set to make our projections of future total infections and deaths since it includes data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, the U.S. Military, federal prisons and the Navajo Nation.

14-day Moving Averages of SARS-CoV-2  Deaths and Infections in USA

1/15/211/01/2112/18/2012/04/2011/21/2011/07/2010/24/2010/10/209/26/209/12/208/28/208/14/207/31/207/17/20
Deaths/day3,163*2,4622,5101,7771,2868917547287878239631,0501,070714
Infections/Day248,131**186,106216,750173,513154,94590,07559,15545,24640,65739,95143,88454,59766,74861,512
*701 more deaths per day than the 14-day period ending in 1/1/21 **62,025 more infections per day than the 14-day period ending in 1/1/21

In the United States, SARS-CoV-2 deaths have increased for the first time since the last 14-day period. There were 701 more deaths per day than in the last 14-day period. In the last 14 days, the number of infections has increased by 62,024 infections per day.  This increase in infections over the last two-week period is due to two major holidays. On 1/15/21, 248,080 new infections occurred in the United States. There were also 3,805 deaths. Over 130,000 people are hospitalized in the USA and 28,937 serious or critically ill patients are in our hospitals as of 1/15/21.

As of 1/15/21, we have had 401,856 deaths and 24,102,429 SARS CoV-2 infections in the United States.  We have had 3,473,834 new infections in the last 14 days. We are adding  over 1.7 million infections every 7 days. Each million infections usually results in at least 20,000 deaths. On 1/15/21, fifteen states have had greater than 500,000 total infections, and 26 states had greater than 5,000 total deaths. 

On 11/20/20 in the United States, 3.70% of the population had a documented SARS-CoV-2 infection. California was ranked 41st in infection percentage at 2.77%. In North Dakota 9.18% of the population was infected (ranked #1), and in South Dakota 8.03% of the population was infected (ranked #2).

As of 1/15/21, in the United States 7.28% of the population has had a documented SARS-CoV-2 infection. California was ranked 26th in infection percentage at 7.40%. In North Dakota 12.54% of the population was infected (ranked #1) and in South Dakota 11.86% of the population was infected (ranked #2). Thirty-six states already have greater than 6% of their population infected (North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Utah, Montana, Illinois, Idaho, Tennessee, Rhode Island, Minnesota, Wyoming, Kansas, Indiana, Arkansas, Nevada, Alabama, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Arizona, New Mexico, Louisiana, Missouri, Georgia, Alaska, Florida, Texas, Connecticut, North Carolina, Colorado, Massachusetts, Ohio, New Jersey, Delaware and Kentucky). 

A new mutant SARS-CoV-2 virus (lineage B.1.1.7), first seen in the UK in September, has now been found in multiple other countries. In California, two patients in LA county and three patients in San Diego county are infected with this new mutant. Two patients in Colorado and one in Florida have also been identified as of 12/31/20. As of 1/15/21, this new mutant has been found in nine other states (New York, Georgia, Texas, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Utah, Maryland, and Wisconsin. This isolate (let’s call it Lineage B.1.1.7 or SARS-CoV-2 UK) is more infectious than other previously circulating B2 lineage isolates (probably 30 to 40% increased infectivity). There are two deletions and six other mutations in its spike protein. One mutation involves a change of one amino acid, an asparagine at position 501 in the receptor binding motif with a tyrosine. This enhances binding (affinity) to the ACE-2 receptor and may alone be responsible for the increased infectivity of this isolate. Due to air and other travel this isolate should become the dominant isolate worldwide.  

In a research letter pending publication in Clinical Infectious Diseases, a group of NHS doctors describe the case of a patient who was first infected with SARS-CoV-2 in April and became reinfected in December. After the patient’s second infection, Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) was performed on samples from both instances of infection, and it was determined that the first infection in April was with a B.2 lineage variant and the second infection was with the new B.1.1.7 variant. While the patient, “a 78 year old man with a history of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, diabetic nephropathy on haemodialysis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), mixed central and obstructive sleep apnoea, ischaemic heart disease, with no history of immunosuppression” had only had a mild illness (fever being the only symptom) during the first infection, during the second infection, he had much more severe symptoms, including shortness of breath and hypoxia, which led to emergency intubation. He developed “Severe Covid-19 pneumonia complicated by mycocardial infarction with resulting trifascicular block and Atrio-Ventricular (AV) dissociation and pulmonary oedema.” (To read the full research letter, visit https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab014/6076528 and click PDF.)

The patient described in this research letter was not protected by a natural infection with a B2 lineage SARS-CoV-2 isolate in April 2020 from having a potentially lethal second infection with a B.1.1.7 lineage variant in December 2020, suggesting that folks who have had a past SARS-CoV-2 infection should not expect to have any immunity to new variants such as B.1.1.7. All of the currently available vaccines were developed with spike protein from B2 lineages, so it remains to be seen whether these vaccines will protect against B.1.1.7 infections or the additional isolates discussed below.

A second mutation in the loop sequence has been identified in the South African, Brazilian, and Japanese isolates this week. This mutation will also enhance binding to the ACE-2 receptor and may interfere with binding of monoclonal antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding motif. If this rate of mutations and deletions continues in the spike protein, especially in the receptor binding domain and motif, in my opinion, then vaccine reformulation will be required in 2021.

We have a new President-elect and Vice President-elect, now confirmed by the electoral college and approved in the House and Senate on 1/06/21 despite a riot and invasion of the Capital by President Trump’s supporters. The President-elect has made the pandemic a first priority after Inauguration on January 20, 2021. Testing, wearing masks, social distancing and washing our hands frequently should no longer be political issues. These are non-pharmaceutical interventions used by most successful countries and some states to protect their citizens and their economies. New Zealand, Taiwan, and Australia are three countries that have done this successfully.  In the United States, Maine, Vermont, and Hawaii are doing a better job handling the pandemic than many of our states. The pandemic problem is overwhelming our health care delivery system in many states. Unless things change before Inauguration Day on January 20, 2020 (5 days away) we could, by our predictions, have an additional 1,221,405 SARS-CoV-2 infections and another 15,815 deaths. Our infections per day and deaths per day will continue to increase for at least another 8 to 12 weeks.

The Pfizer and Moderna RNA vaccines are both now approved in the USA. To vaccinate 80% of our population with two doses of vaccine, we will need over 500 million doses of vaccine. Unless we start vaccine shipments to clinics and physicians’ offices, not just hospitals and pharmacies, I doubt most people will be able to receive any vaccine until April 2021.  

All current vaccines are based on the Chinese spike protein sequence from December 2019. Mutated isolates, as discussed above, may overtake our ability to produce vaccines and vaccinate the populace. Like Influenza vaccines, we may have to reformulate vaccines based on active, worldwide surveillance every 8 to 12 months. We need to perform more virus isolations and perform more DNA sequencing of viruses in each country, state, populous city, and county if we are to rapidly identify new mutations. I’m not sure we have the facilities, the equipment, and the trained staff needed to perform this work. I feel we are not prepared (or preparing) to do this and will suffer the consequences if we continue down our current path. “Magical thinking” will not solve these problems, just laborious work by many people. Are we all up to the tasks at hand?

COVID-19, Uncategorized

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Update

It’s time for our next 14-day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 for the United States. We use the Worldometers aggregators data set to make our projections of future total infections and deaths since it includes data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, the U.S. Military, Federal Prisons and the Navajo Nation.

14-day moving averages of SARS-CoV-2 Deaths and Infections in the USA

11/21/2011/07/2010/24/2010/10/209/26/209/12/208/28/208/14/20
Average deaths per day1,286*8917547287878239631,050
Average infections per day154,945**90,07559,15545,24640,65739,95143,88454,597
*395 more deaths per day than 11/07/20 **64,870 more infections per day than 11/07/20

In the United States, SARS-CoV-2 deaths have increased for the third time in a 14-day period after decreasing in each of five previous 14-day periods. There were 395 more deaths per day in the last 14 days. In the last 14 days, the number of infections has increased by 64,870 infections per day. Deaths per day will continue to increase at least over the next 8 to 10 weeks. On 11/20/20, 204,179 new infections occurred in the United States, another new daily record for infections. There were also 1,999 deaths and 22,789 serious or critically ill patients in our hospitals on 11/20/20.

As of 11/20/20 we have had 260,331 deaths and 12,277,827 SARS CoV-2 infections in the United States. This represents 21.2% of the infections and 18.9% of the deaths in the world from SARS-CoV-2. We have had 2,169,236 new infections in the last 14 days. We are adding one million infections every 7 days. Each million infections usually results in at least 20,000 deaths. On 11/20/20, thirty five states had greater than 100,000 total infections and 29 states had greater than 2,000 total deaths. Only 58 other countries have greater than 100,000 infections and only 51 countries have more than 2,000 deaths.

We have a new President-elect and Vice President-elect that are making the pandemic a first priority after Inauguration on January 20, 2021. Testing, contact tracing, wearing masks, social distancing, and washing our hands frequently should no longer be political issues. These are non-pharmaceutical interventions used by most successful countries and some states to protect their citizens and their economies. New Zealand, Taiwan, and Australia are three countries that have done this successfully. In the United States, Maine, Vermont, and Hawaii are doing a better job handling the pandemic than many of our states. The pandemic problem is overwhelming our health care delivery system in many states. Unless things change before Inauguration Day on January 20, 2020 (61 days away) we could by our predictions have an additional 9,451,645 SARS-CoV-2 infections and another 78,446 deaths. If our infections per day and deaths per day continue to increase these numbers will, once again, be underestimations of the problem.

COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Update

It’s time for our next 14-day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 for the United States. We use the Worldometers aggregators data set to make our projections of future total infections and deaths since it includes data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, the U.S. Military, federal prisons and the Navajo Nation.

11/07/2010/24/2010/10/209/26/209/12/208/28/208/14/207/31/20
Average Deaths per day*8917547287878239631,0501,070
Average Infections per day**90,07559,15545,24640,65739,95143,88454,59766,748
*137 more deaths per day than 10/24/20 14-day period
**30,920 more infections per day than 10/24/20 14-day period

In the United States, SARS-CoV-2 deaths have increased for the second time in a 14-day period after decreasing in each of five previous 14-day periods. There were 137 more deaths per day in the last 14 days. In the last 14 days, the number of infections per day has increased by 30,920. Deaths per day will continue to increase at least over the next 8 to 12 weeks. On 11/06/20, 132,540 new infections occurred in the United States, another new daily record for infections. There were also 1,248 deaths and 18,303 serious or critically ill patients in our hospitals on 11/06/20.

As of 11/06/20, we have had 242,230 deaths and 10,058,586 SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States. This represents 20.2% of the infections and 19.4% of the deaths in the world from SARS-CoV-2. On 10/24/20, 29 states in the United States had greater than 100,000 infections and 26 states had greater than 2,000 deaths. On 11/06/20, 32 states have greater than 100,000 infections and 28 states have greater than 2,000 deaths. Only 57 other countries have greater than 100,000 infections, and only 45 countries have more than 2,000 deaths.

As of 10/24/20, in the United States, 2.642% of the population has had a documented SARS-CoV-2 infection. California was ranked 33rd in infection percentage at 2.270%. In North Dakota, 4.716% of the population was infected (ranked #1) and in South Dakota 4.205% of the population was infected (ranked #2). As of 11/06/20, in the United States, 3.038% of the population has had a documented SARS-CoV-2 infection. California was ranked 36th in infection percentage at 2.44%. In North Dakota 6.77% of the population was infected (ranked #1) and in South Dakota 5.95% of the population was infected (ranked #2). On 11/06/20, Texas became the first state to record over a million total infections. They had 9,239 infections and 124 deaths on 11/06/20, bringing their total infections to 1,007,155 and total deaths to 19,154. 3.47% of Texas residents have had an infection. Probably greater than 90% of the people in the USA have not had their first SARS-CoV-2 infection.

We have a new President-elect and Vice President-elect today. Testing, contact tracing, wearing masks, social distancing and washing our hands frequently should no longer be political issues. These are non-pharmaceutical interventions used by most successful countries and some states to protect their citizens and their economies. New Zealand, Taiwan, and Australia are three countries that have done this successfully. In the United States, Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Hawaii and Oregon are doing a better job handling the pandemic than many of our states. The pandemic problem is about to overwhelm our health care delivery system in many states. Unless things change before Inauguration Day on January 20, 2021 (75 days away) we could, by our predictions, have 6,755,625 new SARS-CoV-2 infections and another 66,825 deaths. If our infections per day and deaths per day continue to increase, these numbers will be underestimations of the problem.

COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Projections

It’s time for our next 14-day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 for the United States. We use the Worldometers aggregators data set to make our projections of future total infections and deaths since it includes data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, the U.S Military, federal prisons and the Navajo Nation.

14-day moving averages of SARS-CoV-2 Deaths and Infections

10/10/209/26/209/12/208/28/208/14/20
Average deaths per day728*7878239631,050
Average infections per day45,246**40,65739,95143,88454,597
*59 fewer deaths per day than 9/26/20 **4,589 more infections per day than 9/26/20

In the United States, SARS CoV-2 deaths have decreased in each of the last five previous 14-day periods. There were 59 fewer deaths per day in the last 14 days.  However, in the last 14 days the number of infections has increased by 4,589 infections per day. Deaths per day should increase over the next 2 to 3 weeks.

As of 10/09/20 we have had 218,647 deaths and 7,894,478  SARS CoV-2 infections in the United States. This represents 21.3% of the infections and 20.4% of the deaths in the world from SARS-CoV-2. Twenty-four states in the United States have greater than 100,000 infections, and 26 states have greater than 2,000 deaths. Only 43 other countries have greater than 100,000 infections and only 41 countries have more than 2,000 deaths.

COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Projections

It’s time for our next 14-day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 for the United States. We use the Worldometers aggregators data set to make our projections of future total infections and deaths since it includes data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, the U.S Military, federal prisons and the Navajo Nation.

 14-day moving averages of SARS-CoV-2  deaths and infections

9/26/209/12/208/28/208/14/207/31/20
Average Deaths Per Day7878239631,0501,070
Average Infections Per Day40,65739,95143,88454,59766,748
*36 fewer deaths per day than on 9/12/20 **706 more infections per day than 9/12/20

In the United States the SARS-CoV-2 deaths have decreased in each of the last four previous 14-day periods. There were 36 fewer deaths per day in the last 14 days. However, in the last 14 days, the number of infections has increased by 706 infections per day.

As of 9/26/20 we have had 208,440 deaths and 7,244,184 SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States. This represents 22% of the infections and 21% of the deaths in the world from SARS-CoV-2. Twenty-two states in the United States have greater than 100,000 infections and 26 states have greater than 2,000 deaths. Only 37 other countries have greater than 100,000 infections and only 38 countries have more than 2,000 deaths.

Our new projections for the United States are that by October 4, 2020, we will have had 214,696 total deaths and 7,569,440 infections.

Our new projections for the United States are that by November 4, 2020, we will have had 239,093 total deaths and 8,829,807 total infections.

COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 Projections 9/14/20

It’s time for our next 14-day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) for the United States. We use the Worldometers aggregators data set to make our projections of future total infections and deaths, since it includes data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, the U.S. Military, federal prisons, and the Navajo Nation.

14-Day Moving Averages of SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Deaths

9/12/208/28/208/14/207/31/207/17/20
Average Deaths per day823*9631,0501,070714
Average Infections per day39,951**43,88454,59766,74861,512
*140 fewer deaths/day than 8/28/20 **3,933 fewer infections/day than 8/28/20

The SARS-CoV-2 infections and subsequent deaths have decreased in each of three previous 14-day periods. In the last 14 days, the number of infections has decreased by 3,933 infections per day, and average deaths per day have decreased by 140 deaths per day.

As of 9/11/20 we have had 197,177 deaths and 6,636,247 SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States.

Our new projections for the United States are that by October 4, 2020 we will have had 211,283 total deaths and 7,507,249 infections.

Our new projections for the United States are that by November 4, 2020 we will have had 241,734 total deaths and 8,972,116 total infections.

COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Projections

It’s time for our next 14-day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) for the United States. We use the Worldometers aggregators data set to make our projections of future total infections and deaths since it includes data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, the U.S. Military, federal prisons and the Navajo Nation.

14-Day Moving Averages of SARS-CoV-2 Deaths and Infections

8/28/208/14/207/31/207/17/20
Average deaths per day963*1,0501,070714
Average infections per day43,884**54,59766,74861,512
*87 fewer deaths per day than 8/14/20 **10,713 fewer infections per day than 8/14/20

The SARS-CoV-2 infections and subsequent deaths were decreasing in each of two previous 14-day periods. In the last 14 days, the number of infections has decreased by 10,713 infections per day and average deaths per day has decreased by 87 deaths per day.

As of 8/28/20 we have had 185,901 deaths and 6,096,235 SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States. Our new projections for the United States are that by October 4, 2020, we will have had 222,383 total deaths and 7,719,943 infections. We also project that by November 4, 2020, we will have had 252,949 total deaths and 9,101,347 total infections.

COVID-19

14-Day Moving Average Projections for COVID-19

It’s time for our next 14-day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 for the United States. We use the Worldometers aggregators data set to make our projections of future total infections and deaths since it includes data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, the U.S Military, Federal Prisons and the Navajo Nation.

                           14-Day Moving Averages of SARS-CoV-2  Infections and Deaths

8/14/207/31/207/17/20
Average Deaths Per Day1,0501,07072420 fewer deaths per day compared with 7/31/20
Average Infections Per Day54,59766,74861,51212,157 fewer infections per day compared with 7/31/20

The SARS-CoV-2 infections and subsequent deaths were increasing in each of two previous 14-day periods. In the last 14 days, the number of infections has decreased by 12,157 infections per day and average deaths per day has decreased by 20 deaths per day.

As of 8/14/20 we have had 171,535 deaths and 5,476,266 SARS CoV-2 infections in the United States.

Our new projections for the United States are that by October 4, 2020, we will have had 225,085 total deaths (a decrease in projected deaths from 226,297 total deaths) and 8,260,713 infections (a decrease in projected infections from 9,044,509 total infections).

Our new projections for the United States are that by November 4, 2020, we will have had 257,635 total deaths and 9,953,220 total infections.

COVID-19

COVID-19 Update (8/1/20)

It’s time for our next 14 day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 for the United States. (Data via Worldometers.)

14 day moving averages of SARS-CoV-2  Average increase per day (last 14 days)

7/31/207/17/20   Change in deaths/infections per day
Average Deaths per day  1,070714356 extra deaths per day
Average Infections per day66,74861,5125,236 extra infections per day

The SARS-CoV-2 infections and subsequent deaths are still increasing in each of the last two 14 day periods in the United States with no signs of improvement.

As of 7/31/20, we have had 156,747 deaths and 4,705,889 SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States.

Sadly our projections for the United States are that by October 4, 2020 we will have had 226,297 total deaths and 9,044,509 total infections.

Sadly our projections for the United States are that by November 4, 2020 we will have had 259,467 total deaths and 11,113,697 total infections.

COVID-19

COVID-19 Update (7/18/20)

We last updated our COVID-19 projections on data through 7/4/20. We predicted that by October 1, 2020 we would have a total of 6,689,398 infections and a total of 183,725 deaths (+/- 1,328 deaths).  By November 4, 2020, we had predicted there would be a total of 8,124,504 infections and 203,241 total deaths (+/- 1829 deaths). Due to rapidly changing numbers of infections and an unstable crude death rate, our reassessment of infection and death predictions will occur every 2 weeks.

We use Worldometers data sets to make our projections. We have had 861,717 infections and 9,998 deaths in the last 14 days. We are averaging 61,512 infections and 714 deaths per day the last 14 days. We’ve had, in the United States, 3,770,012 infections and 142,064 deaths. Our calculated COVID-19 death percentage in the United States is 6.615% as of 7/18/20.

These are our July 18, 2020 updated COVID-19 projections for the United States. We predict that by October 4, 2020 in the United States we’ll have a total of 8,567,948 infections, and a total of 197,756 deaths (+/- 2512 deaths) will have occurred.  Due to rapidly changing numbers of infections and an unstable crude death rate, our reassessment of total infection and death predictions for November 4, 2020 is not possible at this time. We will re-evaluate our predictions in two weeks.