COVID-19

COVID-19 Update (8/1/20)

It’s time for our next 14 day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 for the United States. (Data via Worldometers.)

14 day moving averages of SARS-CoV-2  Average increase per day (last 14 days)

7/31/207/17/20   Change in deaths/infections per day
Average Deaths per day  1,070714356 extra deaths per day
Average Infections per day66,74861,5125,236 extra infections per day

The SARS-CoV-2 infections and subsequent deaths are still increasing in each of the last two 14 day periods in the United States with no signs of improvement.

As of 7/31/20, we have had 156,747 deaths and 4,705,889 SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States.

Sadly our projections for the United States are that by October 4, 2020 we will have had 226,297 total deaths and 9,044,509 total infections.

Sadly our projections for the United States are that by November 4, 2020 we will have had 259,467 total deaths and 11,113,697 total infections.

COVID-19

COVID-19 Update (7/18/20)

We last updated our COVID-19 projections on data through 7/4/20. We predicted that by October 1, 2020 we would have a total of 6,689,398 infections and a total of 183,725 deaths (+/- 1,328 deaths).  By November 4, 2020, we had predicted there would be a total of 8,124,504 infections and 203,241 total deaths (+/- 1829 deaths). Due to rapidly changing numbers of infections and an unstable crude death rate, our reassessment of infection and death predictions will occur every 2 weeks.

We use Worldometers data sets to make our projections. We have had 861,717 infections and 9,998 deaths in the last 14 days. We are averaging 61,512 infections and 714 deaths per day the last 14 days. We’ve had, in the United States, 3,770,012 infections and 142,064 deaths. Our calculated COVID-19 death percentage in the United States is 6.615% as of 7/18/20.

These are our July 18, 2020 updated COVID-19 projections for the United States. We predict that by October 4, 2020 in the United States we’ll have a total of 8,567,948 infections, and a total of 197,756 deaths (+/- 2512 deaths) will have occurred.  Due to rapidly changing numbers of infections and an unstable crude death rate, our reassessment of total infection and death predictions for November 4, 2020 is not possible at this time. We will re-evaluate our predictions in two weeks.