SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Projections

It’s time for our next 14-day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 for the United States. We use the Worldometers aggregators data set to make our projections of future total infections and deaths since it includes data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, the U.S Military, federal prisons and the Navajo Nation.

14-day moving averages of SARS-CoV-2 Deaths and Infections

Average deaths per day728*7878239631,050
Average infections per day45,246**40,65739,95143,88454,597
*59 fewer deaths per day than 9/26/20 **4,589 more infections per day than 9/26/20

In the United States, SARS CoV-2 deaths have decreased in each of the last five previous 14-day periods. There were 59 fewer deaths per day in the last 14 days.  However, in the last 14 days the number of infections has increased by 4,589 infections per day. Deaths per day should increase over the next 2 to 3 weeks.

As of 10/09/20 we have had 218,647 deaths and 7,894,478  SARS CoV-2 infections in the United States. This represents 21.3% of the infections and 20.4% of the deaths in the world from SARS-CoV-2. Twenty-four states in the United States have greater than 100,000 infections, and 26 states have greater than 2,000 deaths. Only 43 other countries have greater than 100,000 infections and only 41 countries have more than 2,000 deaths.