September 2020 – David C. Wright, M.D.

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Projections

09/26/202010/10/2020 davidcwrightmd

It’s time for our next 14-day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 for the United States. We use the Worldometers aggregators data set to make our projections of future total infections and deaths since it includes data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, the U.S Military, federal prisons and the Navajo Nation.

14-day moving averages of SARS-CoV-2 deaths and infections

	9/26/20	9/12/20	8/28/20	8/14/20	7/31/20
Average Deaths Per Day	787	823	963	1,050	1,070
Average Infections Per Day	40,657	39,951	43,884	54,597	66,748

*36 fewer deaths per day than on 9/12/20 **706 more infections per day than 9/12/20

In the United States the SARS-CoV-2 deaths have decreased in each of the last four previous 14-day periods. There were 36 fewer deaths per day in the last 14 days. However, in the last 14 days, the number of infections has increased by 706 infections per day.

As of 9/26/20 we have had 208,440 deaths and 7,244,184 SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States. This represents 22% of the infections and 21% of the deaths in the world from SARS-CoV-2. Twenty-two states in the United States have greater than 100,000 infections and 26 states have greater than 2,000 deaths. Only 37 other countries have greater than 100,000 infections and only 38 countries have more than 2,000 deaths.

Our new projections for the United States are that by October 4, 2020, we will have had 214,696 total deaths and 7,569,440 infections.

Our new projections for the United States are that by November 4, 2020, we will have had 239,093 total deaths and 8,829,807 total infections.

COVID-19

Monterey County California SARS-CoV-2 update 9/06-9/19/20

09/19/2020 davidcwrightmd

In the last 14 days (September 6 – September 19, 2020), 9,289 RT-PCR assays for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) were performed and 996 were positive for an average of 10.60% positive tests per day. We have had 9 deaths in 14 days, an average of 0.643 deaths per day. We have now had a total of 9,467 infections in our county; 10.52% of these infections have occurred in the last 14 days of the pandemic. At our current rate of new infections, 71 per day for the last 14 days, we will reach 10,000 total infections in 8 days. 41 new patients were hospitalized in the last 14 days bringing the total to 549; 7.46% of the total hospitalizations have occurred in the last 14 days. Our hospitalization rate is averaging 2.93 patients per day for the last 14 days. To date, 67 of the 549 patients have died (12.20%). We are not controlling the infection in Monterey County. If our rate of hospitalizations and death rate remain constant, we will reach a total of 100 COVID-19 deaths in our county between 11/3/20 and 11/09/20. If we can get the number of infections down below 1% to 3% per day, we might have a chance to control the pandemic and the deaths per day in our county.

COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 Projections 9/14/20

09/14/202009/19/2020 davidcwrightmd

It’s time for our next 14-day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) for the United States. We use the Worldometers aggregators data set to make our projections of future total infections and deaths, since it includes data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, the U.S. Military, federal prisons, and the Navajo Nation.

14-Day Moving Averages of SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Deaths

	9/12/20	8/28/20	8/14/20	7/31/20	7/17/20
Average Deaths per day	823*	963	1,050	1,070	714
Average Infections per day	39,951**	43,884	54,597	66,748	61,512

*140 fewer deaths/day than 8/28/20 **3,933 fewer infections/day than 8/28/20

The SARS-CoV-2 infections and subsequent deaths have decreased in each of three previous 14-day periods. In the last 14 days, the number of infections has decreased by 3,933 infections per day, and average deaths per day have decreased by 140 deaths per day.

As of 9/11/20 we have had 197,177 deaths and 6,636,247 SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States.

Our new projections for the United States are that by October 4, 2020 we will have had 211,283 total deaths and 7,507,249 infections.

Our new projections for the United States are that by November 4, 2020 we will have had 241,734 total deaths and 8,972,116 total infections.

COVID-19

Monterey County California SARS-CoV-2 Update

09/05/202009/12/2020 davidcwrightmd

In the last 14 days (August 23-September 5, 2020), 10,812 RT-PCR assays for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) were performed and 1,146 were positive for an average of 10.60% positive tests per day. We have had 6 deaths in 14 days or an average of 0.428 deaths per day. We have now had a total of 8,439 infections in our county; 14.3% of these infections have occurred in the last 14 days of the pandemic. 77 new patients were hospitalized in the last 14 days, bringing the total to 507; 15.18% of the total hospitalized patients have occurred in the last 14 days. To date 58 of the 507 patients have died (11.43%). We are not controlling the infection in Monterey County and our hospitalization rate is averaging 5.5 patients per day the last 14 days. If we can get the number of infections down below 1 to 3% per day we might have a chance to control the pandemic in our county.