Tag: modeling

COVID-19

COVID-19 Update (7/18/20)

davidcwrightmd

We last updated our COVID-19 projections on data through 7/4/20. We predicted that by October 1, 2020 we would have a total of 6,689,398 infections and a total of 183,725 deaths (+/- 1,328 deaths).  By November 4, 2020, we had predicted there would be a total of 8,124,504 infections and 203,241 total deaths (+/- 1829 deaths). Due to rapidly changing numbers of infections and an unstable crude death rate, our reassessment of infection and death predictions will occur every 2 weeks.

We use Worldometers data sets to make our projections. We have had 861,717 infections and 9,998 deaths in the last 14 days. We are averaging 61,512 infections and 714 deaths per day the last 14 days. We’ve had, in the United States, 3,770,012 infections and 142,064 deaths. Our calculated COVID-19 death percentage in the United States is 6.615% as of 7/18/20.

These are our July 18, 2020 updated COVID-19 projections for the United States. We predict that by October 4, 2020 in the United States we’ll have a total of 8,567,948 infections, and a total of 197,756 deaths (+/- 2512 deaths) will have occurred.  Due to rapidly changing numbers of infections and an unstable crude death rate, our reassessment of total infection and death predictions for November 4, 2020 is not possible at this time. We will re-evaluate our predictions in two weeks.

COVID-19

Updated Modeling for COVID-19

davidcwrightmd

We have updated our predictions for COVID-19 infections and deaths by October 1, 2020 and a new prediction for November 4, 2020. We had predicted in June that there would be 3,887,718 COVID-19 infected patients in the United States. Our estimate, based on 3,887,718 infections on October 1 (inclusive) was that we would have 170,492 deaths. Based on a decreased crude death rate and uncontrolled increases in the number of infections the last two weeks, our new prediction for October 1, 2020 is that we will have a total of 6,689,398 infections and a total of 183,725 deaths (+ or – 1,328 deaths). By November 4, 2020 we predict there will have been a total of 8,124,504 infections and 203,241 total deaths (+ or – 1829 deaths). With rapidly changing infections and an unstable crude death rate, our reassessment of infection and death predictions will occur again in 2 weeks.

COVID-19

Updated Modeling for COVID-19

davidcwrightmd

On October 1, we predict there will be 3,887,718 COVID-19 infected patients in the United States. Our estimate, based on 3,887,718 infections on October 1 (inclusive) would be that we will have 170,492 deaths. Depending on whether the death rate changes, we could have upwards of 205,266 deaths, but we feel confident, based on our modeling, that the number of deaths will be closer to 170,492. We will be reassessing these numbers every 7 days.

For daily COVID-19 updates, follow Dr. Wright on Twitter!