On October 1, we predict there will be 3,887,718 COVID-19 infected patients in the United States. Our estimate, based on 3,887,718 infections on October 1 (inclusive) would be that we will have 170,492 deaths. Depending on whether the death rate changes, we could have upwards of 205,266 deaths, but we feel confident, based on our modeling, that the number of deaths will be closer to 170,492. We will be reassessing these numbers every 7 days.
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David C. Wright, M.D. 