Updated Modeling for COVID-19

We have updated our predictions for COVID-19 infections and deaths by October 1, 2020 and a new prediction for November 4, 2020. We had predicted in June that there would be 3,887,718 COVID-19 infected patients in the United States. Our estimate, based on 3,887,718 infections on October 1 (inclusive) was that we would have 170,492 deaths. Based on a decreased crude death rate and uncontrolled increases in the number of infections the last two weeks, our new prediction for October 1, 2020 is that we will have a total of 6,689,398 infections and a total of 183,725 deaths (+ or – 1,328 deaths). By November 4, 2020 we predict there will have been a total of 8,124,504 infections and 203,241 total deaths (+ or – 1829 deaths). With rapidly changing infections and an unstable crude death rate, our reassessment of infection and death predictions will occur again in 2 weeks.