SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Projections

It’s time for our next 14-day moving average determinations and projections for infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) for the United States. We use the Worldometers aggregators data set to make our projections of future total infections and deaths since it includes data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, the U.S. Military, federal prisons and the Navajo Nation.

14-Day Moving Averages of SARS-CoV-2 Deaths and Infections

Average deaths per day963*1,0501,070714
Average infections per day43,884**54,59766,74861,512
*87 fewer deaths per day than 8/14/20 **10,713 fewer infections per day than 8/14/20

The SARS-CoV-2 infections and subsequent deaths were decreasing in each of two previous 14-day periods. In the last 14 days, the number of infections has decreased by 10,713 infections per day and average deaths per day has decreased by 87 deaths per day.

As of 8/28/20 we have had 185,901 deaths and 6,096,235 SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States. Our new projections for the United States are that by October 4, 2020, we will have had 222,383 total deaths and 7,719,943 infections. We also project that by November 4, 2020, we will have had 252,949 total deaths and 9,101,347 total infections.