COVID-19

COVID-19 Update (5/8/20)

By our way of counting, this is Day 130 of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our first USA case was identified in Washington State on Day 21 of the pandemic. In those next 109 days (15.5 weeks) the United States, as of 5/08/20, had 1,292,623 known COVID-19 PCR positive infected patients and 76,928 deaths, giving us a still rising death rate of 5.95%. We have 1,035,768 more COVID-19 positive infected patients than any other country in the world. The total number of COVID-19 positive infected patients in Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the United Kingdom is 1,023,649 or 268,974 fewer infected patients than in the United States.  Two new rapidly expanding “hot spot” countries are Russia with 177,160 infections and 11,231 new infections on 5/8/20 and Brazil with 135,693 infections and 9,082 new infections on 5/8/20.

As of 4/28/20:

      USA                                  WORLD

57,812 deaths                      215,461 deaths

1,004,908 infections        3,094,829 infections   

Death rate: 5.75%             Death Rate: 6.96%

As of 5/08/20:

USA                                     WORLD

76,928 deaths                     270,426 deaths

1,292,623 infections        3,913,644 infections   

Death Rate: 5.95%         Death Rate: 6.91%

The University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics (IHME) said on 4/28/20 that we would have a total of 74,000 deaths in the USA by August 5, 2020. In contrast to this, we analyzed the case and death data using our two methods again on 5/08/20.  We now estimate that we will reach 2,000,000 infected patients in 25 days (601 hours or 3.5 weeks) and have between 42,088 and 45,200 new daily deaths for a total number of deaths between 119,017 and 122,128.

Our predictions from 4/28/20, 5/03/20 and 5/08/20 for time to reach 2,000,000 infections and the estimate of the number of deaths are listed in the following chart:

Recently the University of Washington re-projected the number of deaths by August 4, 2020 to be 134,475.

We don’t usually project out 3 months for total infections and deaths, but if we did, using our methodology, we would predict that by August 4, 2020 in the United States we will have 3,807,104 COVID-19 infected patients and a total of between 207,895 and 231,101 deaths. If the death rate (now 5.95%) continues to increase, these estimates of the number of deaths will be too low.

The FDA finally approved Gilead’s Remdesivir for intravenous treatment of COVID-19 infected patients (5/01/20). Since we initially recommended approval of this drug, another 66,500 Americans have died. Gilead is donating a large amount of drug for free. Unfortunately, it now appears that the government will be involved in the distribution of the drug, which means that rural counties and clinics like ours will probably not have the opportunity to treat our patients with Remdesivir. If it were up to us, this drug would be sold through normal drug distribution channels. Hopefully use of Remdesivir and/or plasma therapy will alter reported deaths in the next four months. I’m not optimistic based on the United States government’s performance during the first 130 days of the COVID-19 pandemic.  

Please think globally and act locally.

COVID-19

COVID-19 Update (5/3/20)

By our way of counting, this is Day 125 of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our first USA case was identified in Washington State on Day 21 of the pandemic. In those next 104 days (15 weeks) the United States as of  9:32 A.M. on 5/03/20 had 1,138,690 known COVID-19 PCR positive infected patients and 66,570 deaths giving us a still rising death rate of 5.84%. We have 922,108 more COVID-19 positive infected patients than any other country in the world. The total number of COVID-19 positive infected patients in Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the United Kingdom is 944,501 or 194,184 fewer infected patients then the United States. By our modeling method, in the United States we should now reach 2,000,000 COVID-19 positive infected patients in 29.7 days (714 hours or approximately 4.25 weeks). 

As of 4/28/20:

      USA                                  World

57,812 deaths                     215,461 deaths

1,004,908 infections        3,094,829 infections   

Death rate: 5.75%            Death Rate: 6.96%

As of 5/03/20:

USA                                  World

66,570 deaths                     244,911 deaths

1,138,690 infections        3,462,682 infections   

Death rate: 5.84%            Death Rate: 6.43%

The University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics said on 4/28/20 that we would a total of 74,000 deaths in the USA by August 5, 2020.

For our prediction on 4/28/20, we used two simple methods to predict the number of deaths and came up with two numbers: in 34.5 days (828 hours or 5 weeks) we should have either  56,166 additional deaths or 57,004 additional deaths from COVID-19. Therefore we predicted  that 5 weeks from  (April 28, 2020), the total number of deaths in the United States would be either 112,641 deaths or 113,479 deaths and we would have 2,000,000 PCR positive COVID-19 infected patients.

We’ve looked at our two methods again 5 days later (5/03/20).  We would now estimate we will now reach 2,000,000 infected patients in 29.7 days (714 hours) and have either 48,400 or 50,587 new deaths, for a total  number of deaths between 114,970 and 117,157.

Other news of interest is that the FDA has finally approved Gilead’s Remdesivir for intravenous treatment of COVID-19 infected patients (5/01/20). Gilead is also donating a large amount of drug for free. Hopefully use of Remdesivir and/or plasma therapy may alter reported deaths in the next month. We recommended that the FDA approve Remdesivir back on March 14.

Please think globally and act locally.

Recommended Reading:

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-potential-covid-19-treatment

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/03/gilead-ceo-says-remdesivir-available-to-coronavirus-patients-this-week-weve-donated-the-entire-supply.html