By our way of counting, this is Day 125 of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our first USA case was identified in Washington State on Day 21 of the pandemic. In those next 104 days (15 weeks) the United States as of 9:32 A.M. on 5/03/20 had 1,138,690 known COVID-19 PCR positive infected patients and 66,570 deaths giving us a still rising death rate of 5.84%. We have 922,108 more COVID-19 positive infected patients than any other country in the world. The total number of COVID-19 positive infected patients in Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the United Kingdom is 944,501 or 194,184 fewer infected patients then the United States. By our modeling method, in the United States we should now reach 2,000,000 COVID-19 positive infected patients in 29.7 days (714 hours or approximately 4.25 weeks).
As of 4/28/20:
57,812 deaths 215,461 deaths
1,004,908 infections 3,094,829 infections
Death rate: 5.75% Death Rate: 6.96%
As of 5/03/20:
66,570 deaths 244,911 deaths
1,138,690 infections 3,462,682 infections
Death rate: 5.84% Death Rate: 6.43%
The University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics said on 4/28/20 that we would a total of 74,000 deaths in the USA by August 5, 2020.
For our prediction on 4/28/20, we used two simple methods to predict the number of deaths and came up with two numbers: in 34.5 days (828 hours or 5 weeks) we should have either 56,166 additional deaths or 57,004 additional deaths from COVID-19. Therefore we predicted that 5 weeks from (April 28, 2020), the total number of deaths in the United States would be either 112,641 deaths or 113,479 deaths and we would have 2,000,000 PCR positive COVID-19 infected patients.
We’ve looked at our two methods again 5 days later (5/03/20). We would now estimate we will now reach 2,000,000 infected patients in 29.7 days (714 hours) and have either 48,400 or 50,587 new deaths, for a total number of deaths between 114,970 and 117,157.
Other news of interest is that the FDA has finally approved Gilead’s Remdesivir for intravenous treatment of COVID-19 infected patients (5/01/20). Gilead is also donating a large amount of drug for free. Hopefully use of Remdesivir and/or plasma therapy may alter reported deaths in the next month. We recommended that the FDA approve Remdesivir back on March 14.
Please think globally and act locally.